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Efficient Market Hypothesis

portfolio theory
Definition
The theory that asset prices fully reflect all available information, making it impossible to consistently outperform through stock picking or market timing.

Explanation

EMH, formalized by Eugene Fama in 1970, comes in three forms: (1) Weak — prices reflect all past trading information (technical analysis can't work); (2) Semi-strong — prices reflect all public information (fundamental analysis can't work); (3) Strong — prices reflect all information, including insider knowledge. While strong-form EMH is clearly violated (insider trading is profitable), the debate over semi-strong efficiency continues. The existence of market anomalies (momentum, value, size effects) challenges EMH, but proponents argue these are compensation for risk, not inefficiency.

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